if you look at the polls what you will see is white noncollege voters. a group that was 58-40 for john mccain nationally four years ago are not giving romney in ohio that much of an edge. and so i think there is some gain that the democrats have gotten from that -- that huge barrage of antiromney ads they ran before the convention. i would say this, though, sean. i think there is some reason to beware arery of the ohio polls. we are seeing results there in the most recent weeks there varying in between a tie and a five point obama swing. but you we are also seeing in the polls almost all of them the 11 in which the real clear politics .com average is based romney way ahead as much as is 20 points among independents and when you look at the party identification figure there, the average in those 11 polls is 39-32, a 7-point advantage. that is essentially equivalent to what the exit poll proclaimed although as josh jordan points out in national review the exit poll party i.d. doesn't seem to match with the actual results in the exit the poll or the actual